A new survey conducted by Spain’s Elcano Royal Institute has revealed that 55% of Spanish citizens now consider Morocco a key external threat to their country — a six-point increase from last

year’s findings.

The poll, carried out between May 19 and 29 with 1,000 respondents, places Morocco at the top of Spain’s perceived foreign threats, ahead of Russia (33%) and the United States (19%). Notably, perceptions of the U.S. as a threat have sharply risen from just 5% in 2024.

Political divide and perceptions of threat

The view of Morocco as a threat is particularly prevalent among right-wing respondents, the study shows. Despite this, over 60% of participants believe Spain remains free from any immediate external threat, while around 40% disagree.

Media narratives and strategic concerns

Spanish media has played a notable role in shaping public opinion on Morocco, closely scrutinizing its military, diplomatic, and economic developments. Reports have repeatedly raised alarms over Morocco's strengthened military capabilities and its growing ties with powerful allies, particularly the United States.

In November, for instance, Spanish outlets expressed concern over former U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential re-election and his close relations with Morocco. Analysts warned that these dynamics could affect Spanish influence in the Mediterranean and spark new tensions over territorial issues.

Ceuta, Melilla, and U.S. foreign policy

Several media reports have speculated that a second Trump administration might revisit the status of Spain’s North African enclaves, Ceuta and Melilla. Some fear a possible U.S. endorsement of Moroccan claims, akin to Trump’s 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

“In terms of security, there is concern that Trump could issue a declaration on Ceuta and Melilla similar to his stance on Western Sahara,” warned a February report in El Español.

Morocco’s military and economic rise

Beyond diplomacy, Morocco’s military modernization — particularly in aviation — has caught the attention of Spanish defense analysts. In March, El Independiente described the developments as a “challenge to neighboring armies,” highlighting Spain as a country of special concern.

Economic competition is also a source of tension. Spain’s media frequently draw comparisons between Morocco’s rapidly growing infrastructure — especially the success of the Tangier Med Port — and key Spanish ports like Algeciras. Reports suggest that Morocco’s progress is reshaping regional trade dynamics and raising strategic anxieties in Spain.

As the relationship between the two neighbors continues to evolve, the perception of Morocco in Spanish public discourse appears increasingly shaped by concerns over military strength, economic rivalry, and geopolitical alliances. Photo by Pline, Wikimedia commons.